Tuscaloosa, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

559
FXUS64 KBMX 141725
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025

A high pressure system will deepen today limiting the
amount of diurnal convection in the region. While widespread
convection is less likely because of the high pressure, isolated
convection can still occur with instability values several
thousands,moderate lapse rates, and higher PW values. Starting
Tuesday, easterly low and mid-level flow will bring increased
moisture advection to the eastern half of the region. Due to the
easterly flow interacting with the flow around the high pressure
convergence could occur. Isolated diurnal convection is expected
tomorrow, with greater coverage possible where convergence occurs.
Heat indices will be in the triple digits today with higher values
possible tomorrow. Will assess if a heat advisory is needed
tomorrow.

24/CKC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025

Tuesday night, an area of low pressure will move westward across
FL and into the eastern Gulf. This low should slowly move west
and strengthen through Wednesday and Thursday. Models diverge
heavily on the strength of this low, and how quickly the high
pressure breaks down over the southeast US. With stronger mid and
upper level flow remaining out of the east across the northern
Gulf, recent model runs have started making a westward trend with
the area of rain, taking the activity further into Louisiana. Will
watch this trend.

Despite the location, the low will bring plenty of east and
southeasterly flow prevailing over the state, with moisture and
warm air advection. There should be periods of scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms, though there is a lot of
uncertainty of where the widespread activity will be, with a lot
of details depending on how far west the low moves, and also how
strong it becomes. Diurnal activity is expected across much of the
area Wednesday and Thursday, with more widespread rain across the
southern fourth of the state, closer to that low.

By Friday the eastern CONUS will be under a fairly zonal upper
level pattern, with scattered diurnal chances remaining over the
state through the weekend. PW values will be near max with decent
instabilities each day.

Temperatures may take on a flipped pattern from the norm, with
higher temperatures in the northwest and lower high temperatures
in the southeast, closer to the cloud cover and increased rain
chances. Heat indices could hit triple digits Wednesday and
Thursday in the far northwest, though overall trends in temps
should be cooler by the end of the week. By the weekend,
temperatures may start a warming trend.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025

There is a possibility of isolated convection this
afternoon and early evening, with the higher chances across the
northern half of the state. Only included VCSH for now as
uncertainty remains for timing and coverage over the TAF sites,
except for KTCL where PROB30 is included because chances of
convection are higher. As of now, there is a very small chance of
showers in KMGM so VCSH has been left out of the TAF.VFR conditions
will prevail outside of any isolated convection. Isolated convection
is possible tomorrow near the end of the TAF period.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

24/CKC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the
foreseeable future with daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. 20 foot winds should remain less than 7 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  95  72  95 /  10  20  20  40
Anniston    73  94  73  92 /  10  20  20  40
Birmingham  74  95  75  94 /  10  20  10  40
Tuscaloosa  74  96  76  95 /  10  20  10  30
Calera      74  95  75  93 /  10  20  10  40
Auburn      75  94  74  91 /  10  30  30  50
Montgomery  75  97  76  95 /  10  20  20  50
Troy        74  96  73  93 /  10  30  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24